Autumn Budget 2026: what could it mean for your finances?

Last updated: 30 September 2026

If you’re within a few years of retirement, thinking about selling a business, or weighing up what to do with an investment property, the run-up to a Budget is an uncomfortable time to be making decisions.

The Autumn Budget 2026 will be delivered on Wednesday 28 October, and almost nothing about its contents has been announced.

What you’re reading about pensions, Capital Gains Tax and Inheritance Tax mixes confirmed law, genuine government discussion and speculation, and the three are easy to confuse.

This article sorts them out, and we’ll keep it updated between now and Budget day.

A headline on its own is rarely a good reason to make a decision you can’t undo.

What has actually been confirmed so far?

The short version is below, with each row explained further down. We update it when the evidence moves rather than quietly changing our minds.

When is the Autumn Budget 2026?

Wednesday 28 October 2026. Chancellor John Healey confirmed the date on 31 July, saying the Budget would be built on fiscal discipline. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes an updated forecast the same day, which often tells you as much as the speech.

Why could this Budget involve difficult choices?

The Chancellor is balancing tax revenues, spending, borrowing, growth and the government’s own fiscal rules. When those don’t add up, tax is where the pressure lands.

The picture has become less comfortable, though it’s still mixed rather than alarming. ONS figures published on 22 September showed the government borrowed £18.3 billion in August, and £77.3 billion between April and August. That is £2.2 billion less than over the same period last year, but £8.1 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s March forecast for this point in the financial year, a gap that has widened from £2.3 billion a month earlier.

Source: Office for National Statistics and Office for Budget Responsibility, Public sector finances, UK: August 2026. Adapted from ONS data licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

A separate ONS release offered a more encouraging growth signal. UK GDP grew by 0.4% in July and by 0.4% across the three months to July, led by services. That improves the recent growth picture, although one stronger month does not remove the pressure from borrowing costs, debt interest or the fiscal rules.

In his growth speech on 7 September, the Chancellor called fiscal discipline his first priority and committed to meeting the fiscal rules at the Budget, balancing the books with a buffer against uncertainty.

He put the scale of it plainly: government now spends £1 in every £10 on debt interest, and if debt interest were a department it would be the second largest in Whitehall after Health.

He described growth as still fragile. Holding that together with limited room to manoeuvre is why speculation gathers around pensions, capital taxes and allowances, though none of it tells you what will be announced.

The wider picture remains finely balanced. Inflation rose to 3.1% in August, and on 17 September the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%. The decision was not unanimous, with three of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members preferring an increase to 4%. The Bank said inflation is likely to rise further over the coming quarters and that risks to the inflation outlook have moved further to the upside. Higher inflation and borrowing costs remain important constraints as the Chancellor approaches the Budget.

The Bank also set out a new multi-year plan for reducing its holdings of UK government bonds, with £20 billion of active gilt sales a year alongside bonds reaching maturity. The way government debt is bought and sold matters because gilt yields feed into the government’s borrowing costs, although the Bank’s decision is monetary policy rather than a Budget measure.

Source: HMRC and GOV.UK. Position as at 7 September 2026.

Could the Personal Allowance change in the Autumn Budget 2026?

The Personal Allowance is £12,570 and, under current policy, stays there until April 2031. Because it doesn’t rise with prices, more income becomes taxable each year even when nothing about your circumstances changes. That effect is called fiscal drag. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that in 2026/27, 4.9 million more people pay Income Tax than would have if the allowance had kept rising with inflation since 2021, with the share of adults paying Income Tax forecast to reach 76% by 2030/31.

One number is worth sitting with if you’re approaching State Pension age. The full new State Pension rose to £241.30 a week in 2026/27, or £12,547.60 a year, which sits just under the allowance. That gap looks likely to close. Under the triple lock, the April uprating is set by the highest of earnings growth, September CPI or 2.5%, and the ONS reported on 15 September that total earnings grew by 3.9% in the three months to July. On that basis the Institute for Fiscal Studies expects the full new State Pension to reach around £250.70 a week, or roughly £13,000 a year, from April 2027. That would put it above the frozen allowance for the first time.

None of that is settled yet. September’s inflation figure has still to be published and the earnings estimate can be revised, so the April 2027 rate isn’t confirmed. What has changed is that a problem people have been predicting for years now looks likely to arrive in about eighteen months, which is why it has become a live Budget question rather than a future one. Pensions Minister Torsten Bell has said the commitment made at Budget 2025 still stands, that pensioners who only just exceed the personal allowance won’t be left paying small amounts of tax during this Parliament, and that the Chancellor will set out at the Budget how that will be delivered. The mechanism hasn’t been explained, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds declined four times on 15 September to go further than pointing at the Budget. The Prime Minister repeated the commitment in his conference speech on 29 September, confirming that low-income pensioners won’t be dragged into paying Income Tax in this Parliament. He didn’t say how it will work or suggest the allowance itself will rise. The promise is framed around low incomes, so if you have a private pension, rental income, savings interest or earnings on top of the State Pension, don’t assume it covers you until the detail is published. If your retirement income is mostly or entirely the State Pension, this is the part of 28 October worth watching.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the allowance is something the government will look at, while making clear there is no commitment.

Status: BEING DISCUSSED for the allowance itself, and CONFIRMED DETAIL PENDING for the protection for low-income pensioners.

There’s a distinction worth holding on to here. Answering questions after his growth speech on 7 September, John Healey repeated the commitment not to raise the rates of Income Tax, VAT, National Insurance or corporation tax. That commitment covers rates. It doesn’t cover thresholds, allowances or reliefs, which is why a frozen Personal Allowance and rising Income Tax bills can sit alongside it.

Could pension rules change in the Autumn Budget?

Could pension tax-free cash change?

Most people can take 25% of their pension savings tax free, capped at £268,275. Speculation about a cut has resurfaced, as it did before the last two Budgets. No announcement has been made, and the same goes for pension tax relief.

Status: UNCONFIRMED.

Here’s why we’d urge caution. Financial Conduct Authority retirement income market data shows tax-free cash withdrawals jumped to £18.3 billion in 2024/25, up from £11.3 billion. The FCA figures record what people did, not why, though AJ Bell attributes the rise largely to fears the government would cut the amount savers can take tax free. The change they were bracing for didn’t happen. The same data shows fewer than a third of pensions accessed for the first time that year were accessed with regulated advice.

Source: Financial Conduct Authority, Retirement income market data.

Taking tax-free cash can’t be reversed. Money that leaves a pension to sit in a bank account loses its tax shelter, and from April 2027 the tax rate on savings interest rises by two percentage points across all bands, to 22%, 42% and 47%.

If taking tax-free cash this year was already part of a considered plan, that plan hasn’t become wrong. What we’d question is a decision driven purely by a newspaper report. An independent financial adviser can help you weigh what the money does for you over 20 or 30 years, rather than what it saves in a scenario that may never happen.

What is already changing with pension salary sacrifice?

This one is settled, and often mistaken for new speculation. From April 2029, only the first £2,000 a year of employee pension contributions made through salary sacrifice keeps its National Insurance exemption. Contributions above that attract employer and employee NICs, though Income Tax relief is unaffected. It was announced at Budget 2025 and has nothing to do with October.

Could Capital Gains Tax change in the Autumn Budget?

Capital Gains Tax comes up before every Budget, and this one is no exception. Nothing has been announced.

Status: UNCONFIRMED

The current position, confirmed by HMRC, is 18% on gains within the basic rate band and 24% above it, with a £3,000 annual exempt amount. Business Asset Disposal Relief has been charged at 18% since 6 April 2026, up from 14%, on up to £1 million of qualifying lifetime gains.

Whether this matters depends on whether you have a disposal in prospect. For a business owner in Bournemouth with a sale agreed for next spring, the rate on completion is a live commercial question. For someone holding everything inside ISAs and pensions, it may not touch them at all.

The trap is assuming that bringing a sale forward is automatically safer. Selling early to beat a rise that never arrives can cost more than the rise would have, once you count a lower price and tax crystallised early. Our guides to planning your finances before a business sale and what to do with an investment property cover that decision.

What could the Autumn Budget mean for Inheritance Tax?

Two changes are already law, and neither depends on 28 October.

What is already changing for pensions from April 2027?

From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds and pension death benefits will count within the value of your estate for Inheritance Tax. This was legislated in Finance Act 2026, which received Royal Assent on 18 March 2026, and HMRC has since published a second technical note covering information sharing between schemes and executors, withholding, payment and clearance. A third is expected this autumn.

If you built a plan around passing a pension on free of Inheritance Tax, this is the change that matters most. See our detailed guide to Inheritance Tax on pensions from April 2027.

What has already changed for Business and Agricultural Relief?

For deaths on or after 6 April 2026, 100% Agricultural and Business Relief is capped at £2.5 million of combined qualifying property, with 50% relief above that. Unused allowance from a late spouse or civil partner can be transferred, taking a couple to £5 million. If you’ve seen the older £1 million figure, that was the original 2024 proposal, since revised upwards.

Could social care reform lead to further estate tax changes?

On 29 September the government announced plans for a National Care Service in England, giving older people free personal care based on need rather than ability to pay. Personal care means help with things like eating, bathing and using the toilet. Bed and board in a care home isn’t included and stays means-tested by councils, which will still ignore the value of a home where a partner or dependent relative lives. The service is due to be introduced in phases during the next Parliament. 

The government says savings from changing the triple lock from April 2030 will go towards it, and that it will be fully funded without borrowing. Baroness Casey’s commission will recommend how and when it’s built, with her report due in summer 2027. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said those savings won’t be enough on their own to fund universal social care. 

There is still genuine discussion about how the full cost gets funded, and estate-based mechanisms are among the ideas raised. None has become government policy. 

Treat the National Care Service as CONFIRMED DETAIL PENDING, the funding question as BEING DISCUSSED and any specific estate charge as UNCONFIRMED. 

Could ISA and savings rules change again?

The ISA rules are already changing, which is worth separating from October speculation. From 6 April 2027, the annual Cash ISA limit falls to £12,000 for savers under 65, while the overall £20,000 allowance stays the same and anyone aged 65 or over keeps the full £20,000 cash limit. Supporting rules apply a 22% charge to interest on cash held inside a non-cash ISA, and block transfers from a stocks and shares ISA into a cash ISA for under-65s.

The regulations are due this autumn. Beyond that, no credible evidence of a further ISA change at this Budget has emerged.

What could the Autumn Budget mean for business owners?

If you run a company across Dorset or Hampshire, the useful question isn’t which rumours are loudest. It’s which confirmed changes are already in your numbers, and which decisions turn on the Budget.

Three are settled. Dividend tax rates rose by two percentage points on 6 April 2026, to 10.75% at the ordinary rate and 35.75% at the upper rate. From April 2027 property income moves onto separate rates of 22%, 42% and 47%. The salary sacrifice cap arrives in April 2029.

Two are pending. A 20% cut to business rates bills for qualifying pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027 has been announced, with treatment of the largest venues due at the Budget. The Low Pay Commission must recommend April 2027 minimum wage rates by October 2026; its indicative projection points to a National Living Wage between £13.02 and £13.34, against £12.71 today, though a projection is not a recommendation.

The 7 September speech was more encouraging on business than on tax. The Chancellor acknowledged that energy bills, regulation, planning constraints and labour costs have all risen since Covid, said he wanted to draw a line under that, and confirmed a target to cut the burden of business regulation by 25% by the end of this Parliament. He also announced £150 million from the British Business Bank for scale-ups in the North, and said the Budget will set out a roadmap to fiscal devolution including greater business rates retention for councils and strategic authorities. None of that changes what you pay in tax next year, though it says something about where investment is being pointed.

If an exit is in view, Capital Gains Tax and Business Asset Disposal Relief are the ones to watch, alongside your accountant’s and solicitor’s work.

Has an exit tax been ruled out?

Partly, and the precision matters. The Financial Times reported on 3 September that the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade had described exit levies as unequivocally ruled out, after reports that companies spun out of UK universities could face a charge on moving overseas. That is a departmental statement to a newspaper about one proposal, not a Treasury policy document, and tax policy is set by the Chancellor.

A charge on individuals who move their tax residence out of the UK is a different question. Asked to rule it out in June, the Prime Minister’s spokesperson declined to comment on speculation, and nothing has changed since.

One story is closed and a related one isn’t. A rumour credibly knocked down is information, and the gap between those two is why we separate what has been ruled out from what simply hasn’t been mentioned.

What about property and wealth taxes?

One measure is already in development. The High Value Council Tax Surcharge will apply to English residential properties worth £2 million or more, with charges from £2,500 to £7,500 a year depending on band.

The consultation closed on 14 July 2026 and the outcome hasn’t been published, so detail may appear at the Budget. Press reports in July and September suggested the government is considering lowering the threshold to £1.5 million. The government hasn’t confirmed it, and the published policy is still £2 million. That’s separate from recurring talk of a broader wealth tax, where nothing has been announced. 

For first-time buyers, the government announced Your First Home on 26 September. It’s expected to support 2.5% deposits on new-build homes in England bought from participating developers, backed by a 20% government equity loan with an initial interest-free period. A household income cap and local price caps will apply, and the details, costs and start date are due at the Budget. If you’re planning to help a child or grandchild with a deposit, those rules will show whether the scheme changes how much help they need.

What else are we watching before 28 October?

The State Pension triple lock, which the government has committed to keeping for the rest of this Parliament, and which the 15 September earnings figure has turned into an immediate Budget issue rather than a distant one, because the uprating it points to would take the full new State Pension past the frozen Personal Allowance. From April 2030 the government plans to replace it with a formula that raises the State Pension by at least inflation or 2.5% a year, and by more when needed to keep its value relative to earnings. It says it will legislate for that in this Parliament. The British Chambers of Commerce wants the triple lock replaced, and the OBR puts its extra cost at £15.5 billion a year by 2030. Fuel duty, EIS, VCT and EMI all saw changes in earlier Budgets, and none has a confirmed Autumn Budget 2026 proposal at the time of writing. 

Should you change your financial plans before the Autumn Budget?

Sometimes, and it depends on where you already were rather than what you read this morning. If you’re approaching a real decision, retiring, taking pension benefits, selling a business or a property, making large gifts or reviewing an estate plan, then checking the plan is current is sensible at any time of year. Several of the changes above have fixed dates you can plan around.

What we’d caution against is treating an unconfirmed report as a deadline. Irreversible decisions taken to pre-empt a change that never arrives are the expensive kind of mistake, and 2024/25 saw a lot of pension money moved in a hurry.

The Chancellor himself declined to discuss tax plans on 7 September, on the grounds that answering would only generate more speculation.

The order that works is understand, model, then decide.

An independent financial adviser can’t tell you what the Chancellor will announce, and be wary of anyone claiming otherwise.

It’s worth knowing what kind of adviser you’re actually dealing with.

What an IFA can do is show you how each plausible outcome affects your plan, so that on 29 October you already know whether anything has changed.

One Budget is a single event in a much longer story, which is how we think about the Financial Journey and financial planning.

Latest Autumn Budget 2026 updates

UPDATED: 30 September 2026.

In his first major speech, Chancellor John Healey confirms the Budget will meet the government’s fiscal rules and sets out measures aimed at investment and regional growth, including a roadmap to fiscal devolution. Answering questions afterwards he repeats the commitment not to raise the rates of Income Tax, VAT, National Insurance or corporation tax, but declines to discuss anything else. Rumours around pensions, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax and wealth taxation are therefore no more and no less certain than they were yesterday.

• 30 September 2026. At the Labour Party Conference on 29 September, the Prime Minister confirmed the triple lock will stay for the rest of this Parliament before being adjusted from April 2030, announced plans for a National Care Service in England with free personal care in the next Parliament, and repeated the commitment that low-income pensioners won’t be dragged into Income Tax in this Parliament. Your First Home, a 2.5% deposit scheme for first-time buyers of new-build homes, was announced on 26 September with details due at the Budget. Reports of a £1.5 million threshold for the High Value Council Tax Surcharge remain unconfirmed. Separately, the ONS revised UK growth in the second quarter of 2026 from 0.4% to 0.5%, with first-quarter growth unchanged at 0.6%. The revision adds to the economic backdrop but doesn’t change the status of any Budget measure. 

• 22 September 2026. ONS figures showed the government borrowed £18.3 billion in August, and £77.3 billion between April and August, £8.1 billion above the OBR’s March forecast for this stage of the financial year. The figures add to the fiscal backdrop ahead of the Budget but do not change any Budget policy classifications.

• 17 September 2026. UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August. The Bank of England subsequently held Bank Rate at 3.75% by six votes to three, with three MPC members preferring an increase to 4%. The Bank said inflation risks had moved further to the upside and announced a new multi-year approach to unwinding its government bond holdings. The developments add to the fiscal backdrop ahead of the Budget but do not change any Budget policy classifications.

• 15 September 2026. ONS earnings data points to a likely 3.9% State Pension increase from April 2027, which would take the full new State Pension above the £12,570 Personal Allowance for the first time. The uprating isn’t confirmed, since September’s inflation figure is still to come, and the government has said the Chancellor will address the tax position at the Budget.

• 3 September 2026. The Financial Times reports that the Business Department has ruled out the exit levy on university spinouts.

• 27 August 2026. HMRC publishes Technical Note 2 on the April 2027 Inheritance Tax treatment of pensions.

• 21 August 2026. ONS borrowing for the financial year to July comes in at £56.7 billion, £2.3 billion above the OBR’s March profile.

• 31 July 2026. The Chancellor confirms the Budget date of Wednesday 28 October.

• 23 July 2026. A 20% business rates cut is announced for qualifying pubs, clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027.

Worried about what the Autumn Budget could mean for your financial plan?

Deciding when to retire, whether to take tax-free cash, when to sell a business or how to pass wealth on is hard enough without a Budget in the background. It’s reasonable to want to know where you stand before 28 October.

Baggette + Co. is a Chartered firm of independent financial advisers based in Poole, working with clients across Dorset, Hampshire and the wider South Coast. We’ve been doing this since 1986, through a good many Budgets (and Chancellors).

We can’t tell you what the Chancellor will announce.

We can sit down with your actual numbers, model what each realistic outcome would mean, and tell you honestly whether anything needs to change. Usually the answer is that a well-built plan already accounts for it.

Knowing that, rather than hoping it, is where peace of mind comes from.

To talk it through, speak to Oscar Hjälmås on 01202 676 983 or email advice@baggette.co.uk.

Frequently Asked Questions for the Autumn Budget 2026

DISCLAIMER:

Baggette + Co. Wealth Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The Financial Conduct Authority do not regulate tax planning, cashflow planning and estate planning. The above information is correct to the best of our understanding as at the date of publication. Nothing within this content is intended as, or can be relied upon as, financial advice. Capital is at risk. A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until age 55 (57 from April 2028 unless the plan has a protected pension age). The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits. The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation which are subject to change. You should seek advice to understand your options at retirement. Tax rules may change, and the value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances. Your property could be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on a mortgage, or any debt secured on it.