Autumn Budget 2026: what could it mean for your finances?

Last updated: 7 September 2026

If you’re within a few years of retirement, thinking about selling a business, or weighing up what to do with an investment property, the run-up to a Budget is an uncomfortable time to be making decisions.

The Autumn Budget 2026 will be delivered on Wednesday 28 October, and almost nothing about its contents has been announced.

What you’re reading about pensions, Capital Gains Tax and Inheritance Tax mixes confirmed law, genuine government discussion and speculation, and the three are easy to confuse.

This article sorts them out, and we’ll keep it updated between now and Budget day.

A headline on its own is rarely a good reason to make a decision you can’t undo.

What has actually been confirmed so far?

The short version is below, with each row explained further down. We update it when the evidence moves rather than quietly changing our minds.

When is the Autumn Budget 2026?

Wednesday 28 October 2026. Chancellor John Healey confirmed the date on 31 July, saying the Budget would be built on fiscal discipline. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes an updated forecast the same day, which often tells you as much as the speech.

Why could this Budget involve difficult choices?

The Chancellor is balancing tax revenues, spending, borrowing, growth and the government’s own fiscal rules. When those don’t add up, tax is where the pressure lands.

The recent picture is mixed rather than alarming. The Office for National Statistics reported that borrowing in the financial year to July 2026 was £56.7 billion, £6.0 billion less than the same period a year earlier but £2.3 billion above the OBR’s forecast, with public sector debt at 94.1% of GDP.

Source: Office for National Statistics and Office for Budget Responsibility, Public sector finances, July 2026. Adapted from ONS data licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

In his growth speech on 7, the Chancellor called fiscal discipline his first priority and committed to meeting the fiscal rules at the Budget, balancing the books with a buffer against uncertainty.

He put the scale of it plainly: government now spends £1 in every £10 on debt interest, and if debt interest were a department it would be the second largest in Whitehall after Health.

He described growth as still fragile. Holding that together with limited room to manoeuvre is why speculation gathers around pensions, capital taxes and allowances, though none of it tells you what will be announced.

Source: HMRC and GOV.UK. Position as at 7 September 2026.

The Personal Allowance is £12,570 and, under current policy, stays there until April 2031. Because it doesn’t rise with prices, more income becomes taxable each year even when nothing about your circumstances changes. That effect is called fiscal drag. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that in 2026/27, 4.9 million more people pay Income Tax than would have if the allowance had kept rising with inflation since 2021, with the share of adults paying Income Tax forecast to reach 76% by 2030/31.

One number is worth sitting with if you’re approaching State Pension age. The full new State Pension rose to £241.30 a week in 2026/27, or £12,547.60 a year, leaving roughly £22 of Personal Allowance before the State Pension alone becomes taxable.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the allowance is something the government will look at, while making clear there is no commitment.

Status: BEING DISCUSSED.

There’s a distinction worth holding on to here. Answering questions after his growth speech on 7 September, John Healey repeated the commitment not to raise the rates of Income Tax, VAT, National Insurance or corporation tax. That commitment covers rates. It doesn’t cover thresholds, allowances or reliefs, which is why a frozen Personal Allowance and rising Income Tax bills can sit alongside it.

Could pension rules change in the Autumn Budget?

Could pension tax-free cash change?

Most people can take 25% of their pension savings tax free, capped at £268,275. Speculation about a cut has resurfaced, as it did before the last two Budgets. No announcement has been made, and the same goes for pension tax relief.

Status: UNCONFIRMED.

Here’s why we’d urge caution. Financial Conduct Authority retirement income market data shows tax-free cash withdrawals jumped to £18.3 billion in 2024/25, up from £11.3 billion. The FCA figures record what people did, not why, though AJ Bell attributes the rise largely to fears the government would cut the amount savers can take tax free. The change they were bracing for didn’t happen. The same data shows fewer than a third of pensions accessed for the first time that year were accessed with regulated advice.

Source: Financial Conduct Authority, Retirement income market data.

Taking tax-free cash can’t be reversed. Money that leaves a pension to sit in a bank account loses its tax shelter, and from April 2027 the tax rate on savings interest rises by two percentage points across all bands, to 22%, 42% and 47%.

If taking tax-free cash this year was already part of a considered plan, that plan hasn’t become wrong. What we’d question is a decision driven purely by a newspaper report. An independent financial adviser can help you weigh what the money does for you over 20 or 30 years, rather than what it saves in a scenario that may never happen.

What is already changing with pension salary sacrifice?

This one is settled, and often mistaken for new speculation. From April 2029, only the first £2,000 a year of employee pension contributions made through salary sacrifice keeps its National Insurance exemption. Contributions above that attract employer and employee NICs, though Income Tax relief is unaffected. It was announced at Budget 2025 and has nothing to do with October.

Could Capital Gains Tax change in the Autumn Budget?

Capital Gains Tax comes up before every Budget, and this one is no exception. Nothing has been announced.

Status: UNCONFIRMED

The current position, confirmed by HMRC, is 18% on gains within the basic rate band and 24% above it, with a £3,000 annual exempt amount. Business Asset Disposal Relief has been charged at 18% since 6 April 2026, up from 14%, on up to £1 million of qualifying lifetime gains.

Whether this matters depends on whether you have a disposal in prospect. For a business owner in Bournemouth with a sale agreed for next spring, the rate on completion is a live commercial question. For someone holding everything inside ISAs and pensions, it may not touch them at all.

The trap is assuming that bringing a sale forward is automatically safer. Selling early to beat a rise that never arrives can cost more than the rise would have, once you count a lower price and tax crystallised early. Our guides to planning your finances before a business sale and what to do with an investment property cover that decision.

What could the Autumn Budget mean for Inheritance Tax?

Two changes are already law, and neither depends on 28 October.

What is already changing for pensions from April 2027?

From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds and pension death benefits will count within the value of your estate for Inheritance Tax. This was legislated in Finance Act 2026, which received Royal Assent on 18 March 2026, and HMRC has since published a second technical note covering information sharing between schemes and executors, withholding, payment and clearance. A third is expected this autumn.

If you built a plan around passing a pension on free of Inheritance Tax, this is the change that matters most. See our detailed guide to Inheritance Tax on pensions from April 2027.

What has already changed for Business and Agricultural Relief?

For deaths on or after 6 April 2026, 100% Agricultural and Business Relief is capped at £2.5 million of combined qualifying property, with 50% relief above that. Unused allowance from a late spouse or civil partner can be transferred, taking a couple to £5 million. If you’ve seen the older £1 million figure, that was the original 2024 proposal, since revised upwards.

Could social care reform lead to further estate tax changes?

There is genuine discussion about how social care reform gets funded, and estate-based mechanisms are among the ideas raised. None has become government policy.

Treat the funding question as BEING DISCUSSED and any specific estate charge as UNCONFIRMED.

Could ISA and savings rules change again?

The ISA rules are already changing, which is worth separating from October speculation. From 6 April 2027, the annual Cash ISA limit falls to £12,000 for savers under 65, while the overall £20,000 allowance stays the same and anyone aged 65 or over keeps the full £20,000 cash limit. Supporting rules apply a 22% charge to interest on cash held inside a non-cash ISA, and block transfers from a stocks and shares ISA into a cash ISA for under-65s.

The regulations are due this autumn. Beyond that, no credible evidence of a further ISA change at this Budget has emerged.

What could the Autumn Budget mean for business owners?

If you run a company across Dorset or Hampshire, the useful question isn’t which rumours are loudest. It’s which confirmed changes are already in your numbers, and which decisions turn on the Budget.

Three are settled. Dividend tax rates rose by two percentage points on 6 April 2026, to 10.75% at the ordinary rate and 35.75% at the upper rate. From April 2027 property income moves onto separate rates of 22%, 42% and 47%. The salary sacrifice cap arrives in April 2029.

Two are pending. A 20% cut to business rates bills for qualifying pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027 has been announced, with treatment of the largest venues due at the Budget. The Low Pay Commission must recommend April 2027 minimum wage rates by October 2026; its indicative projection points to a National Living Wage between £13.02 and £13.34, against £12.71 today, though a projection is not a recommendation.

The 7 September speech was more encouraging on business than on tax. The Chancellor acknowledged that energy bills, regulation, planning constraints and labour costs have all risen since Covid, said he wanted to draw a line under that, and confirmed a target to cut the burden of business regulation by 25% by the end of this Parliament. He also announced £150 million from the British Business Bank for scale-ups in the North, and said the Budget will set out a roadmap to fiscal devolution including greater business rates retention for councils and strategic authorities. None of that changes what you pay in tax next year, though it says something about where investment is being pointed.

If an exit is in view, Capital Gains Tax and Business Asset Disposal Relief are the ones to watch, alongside your accountant’s and solicitor’s work.

Has an exit tax been ruled out?

Partly, and the precision matters. The Financial Times reported on 3 September that the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade had described exit levies as unequivocally ruled out, after reports that companies spun out of UK universities could face a charge on moving overseas. That is a departmental statement to a newspaper about one proposal, not a Treasury policy document, and tax policy is set by the Chancellor.

A charge on individuals who move their tax residence out of the UK is a different question. Asked to rule it out in June, the Prime Minister’s spokesperson declined to comment on speculation, and nothing has changed since.

One story is closed and a related one isn’t. A rumour credibly knocked down is information, and the gap between those two is why we separate what has been ruled out from what simply hasn’t been mentioned.

What about property and wealth taxes?

One measure is already in development. The High Value Council Tax Surcharge will apply to English residential properties worth £2 million or more, with charges from £2,500 to £7,500 a year depending on band.

The consultation closed on 14 July 2026 and the outcome hasn’t been published, so detail may appear at the Budget. That’s separate from recurring talk of a broader wealth tax, where nothing has been announced.

What else are we watching before 28 October?

The State Pension triple lock, which the government has committed to keeping, though the British Chambers of Commerce wants it replaced and the OBR puts its extra cost at £15.5 billion a year by 2030. Fuel duty, EIS, VCT and EMI all saw changes in earlier Budgets, and none has a confirmed Autumn Budget 2026 proposal at the time of writing.

Should you change your financial plans before the Autumn Budget?

Sometimes, and it depends on where you already were rather than what you read this morning. If you’re approaching a real decision, retiring, taking pension benefits, selling a business or a property, making large gifts or reviewing an estate plan, then checking the plan is current is sensible at any time of year. Several of the changes above have fixed dates you can plan around.

What we’d caution against is treating an unconfirmed report as a deadline. Irreversible decisions taken to pre-empt a change that never arrives are the expensive kind of mistake, and 2024/25 saw a lot of pension money moved in a hurry.

The Chancellor himself declined to discuss tax plans on 7 September, on the grounds that answering would only generate more speculation.

The order that works is understand, model, then decide.

An independent financial adviser can’t tell you what the Chancellor will announce, and be wary of anyone claiming otherwise.

It’s worth knowing what kind of adviser you’re actually dealing with.

What an IFA can do is show you how each plausible outcome affects your plan, so that on 29 October you already know whether anything has changed.

One Budget is a single event in a much longer story, which is how we think about the Financial Journey and financial planning.

Latest Autumn Budget 2026 updates

UPDATE: 7 September 2026.

In his first major speech, Chancellor John Healey confirms the Budget will meet the government’s fiscal rules and sets out measures aimed at investment and regional growth, including a roadmap to fiscal devolution. Answering questions afterwards he repeats the commitment not to raise the rates of Income Tax, VAT, National Insurance or corporation tax, but declines to discuss anything else. Rumours around pensions, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax and wealth taxation are therefore no more and no less certain than they were yesterday.

• 3 September 2026. The Financial Times reports that the Business Department has ruled out the exit levy on university spinouts.

• 27 August 2026. HMRC publishes Technical Note 2 on the April 2027 Inheritance Tax treatment of pensions.

• 21 August 2026. ONS borrowing for the financial year to July comes in at £56.7 billion, £2.3 billion above the OBR’s March profile.

• 31 July 2026. The Chancellor confirms the Budget date of Wednesday 28 October.

• 23 July 2026. A 20% business rates cut is announced for qualifying pubs, clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027.

Worried about what the Autumn Budget could mean for your financial plan?

Deciding when to retire, whether to take tax-free cash, when to sell a business or how to pass wealth on is hard enough without a Budget in the background. It’s reasonable to want to know where you stand before 28 October.

Baggette + Co. is a Chartered firm of independent financial advisers based in Poole, working with clients across Dorset, Hampshire and the wider South Coast. We’ve been doing this since 1986, through a good many Budgets (and Chancellors).

We can’t tell you what the Chancellor will announce.

We can sit down with your actual numbers, model what each realistic outcome would mean, and tell you honestly whether anything needs to change. Usually the answer is that a well-built plan already accounts for it.

Knowing that, rather than hoping it, is where peace of mind comes from.

To talk it through, speak to Oscar Hjälmås on 01202 676 983 or email advice@baggette.co.uk.

Frequently Asked Questions for the Autumn Budget 2026

DISCLAIMER:

Baggette + Co. Wealth Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The Financial Conduct Authority do not regulate tax planning, cashflow planning and estate planning. The above information is correct to the best of our understanding as at the date of publication. Nothing within this content is intended as, or can be relied upon as, financial advice. Capital is at risk. A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until age 55 (57 from April 2028 unless the plan has a protected pension age). The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits. The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation which are subject to change. You should seek advice to understand your options at retirement. Tax rules may change, and the value of tax reliefs depends on your individual circumstances. Your property could be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on a mortgage, or any debt secured on it.